西南石油大学学报(社会科学版) ›› 2010, Vol. 4 ›› Issue (6): 19-21.DOI: 10.3863/j.issn.1674-5094.2010.06.003

• 石油与天然气软科学 •    下一篇

改进GM(1,1)模型在四川天然气需求预测中的应用

毛文晋 郑寿春   

  1. 西南石油大学经济管理学院,四川 成都 610500
  • 收稿日期:1900-01-01 修回日期:1900-01-01 出版日期:2010-11-20

IMPROVED GM(1,1)MODEL AND APPLICATION IN NATURAL GAS DEMAND FORECASTING OF SICHUAN PROVINCE

MAO Wen-jin ZHENG Shou-chun   

  1. School of Economics and Management,Southwest Petroleum University,Chengdu Sichuan,610500,China
  • Received:1900-01-01 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2010-11-20

摘要: 为了提高GM(1,1)模型在天然气需求预测中的精度和普遍适用性,首先分析了传统GM(1,1)模型存在的不足,提出了改进方法,在传统GM(1,1)模型基础上通过对模型系数进行优化修正,降低预测模型的模型系数,建立了改进的GM(1,1)预测模型。利用四川2000~2007年天然气消费量统计数据对传统GM(1,1)、无偏GM(1,1)和改进GM(1,1)进行了对比预测分析。分析结果表明改进GM(1,1)模型具有较高的精度。

关键词: 改进GM(1, 1)模型, 模型系数优化, 天然气需求, 预测

Abstract:

For the purpose of improving prediction precision and promoting general applicability of GM(1,1) model in natural gas demand forecasting,the deficiencies of conventional GM(1,1) model is analyzed and an improved method is discussed in this paper.An improved GM(1,1) model is constructed by optimizing and revising model coefficient to the lower level.Based on natural gas consumption data in Sichuan in the years from 2000 to 2007,prediction models of conventional GM(1,1),unbiased GM(1,1) and the improved GM(1,1) are compared and analyzed in this paper.The prediction results show that the improved GM(1,1) model has higher prediction accuracy.

中图分类号: