关键词: 宏观经济因素, Logistic模型, MF-Logistic模型, 信用风险, 商业银行

Abstract:

Supply chain finance, a transition from the traditional credit mode in commercial banks, has brought the participants into a win-win situation. In China, supply chain finance is still in the initial stage. Aiming to gain profits, the commercial banks actively develop their supply chain finance businesses, but their credit risk management of the supply chain finance is relatively backward. This paper chooses macroeconomic indicators and credit risk assessment indicators of enterprise at the micro level, and uses econometrics methods to build an MF-Logistic model containing macroeconomic factors and reflecting the financial index of enterprise credit capacity. And then we conduct an empirical study on 27 groups of sample data from the first quarter of 2007 to the third quarter of 2013, and come to conclusions by the empirical study and normative analysis. Through measurement and prediction of credit risk of supply chain finance, this paper offers pre-warning against credit risk of supply chain finance for commercial banks, and provides reference for formulating corresponding measures.

Key words: macroeconomic factors, logistic model, MF-Logistic model, credit risk, commercial bank