Journal of Southwest Petroleum University(Social Sciences Edition) ›› 2023, Vol. 25 ›› Issue (6): 1-12.DOI: 10.11885/j.issn.1674-5094.2023.02.08.03

• ENERGY DEVELOPMENT •     Next Articles

Natural Gas Demand Prediction Based on Multiple Influencing Factors—An Empirical Analysis of the Data of Southwest Oil and Gas Field Company

HE Zhiming1, YUAN Chan1, Luo Xueyuan1, Ren Yuhan2, Luo Xiaoli1   

  1. 1. PetroChina Southwest Oil and Gas Field Company Natural Gas Economics Research Institute, Chengdu Sichuan, 610041, China;
    2. PetroChina Southwest Oil and Gas Field Company Sales Department, Chengdu Sichuan, 610041, China
  • Received:2023-02-08 Published:2023-12-21

Abstract: The effect analysis of natural gas demand factors plays an important role in predicting market demand and energy market stability at the enterprise level. Based on the natural gas marketing data of Southwest Oil and Gas Field Company, this paper analyzes the effect of various influencing factors and the heterogeneity of the industry using a multi-factor regression model. The results show that there are overall differences and industry heterogeneity in the effects of various influencing factors. When studying and judging the key factors affecting demand, enterprises should focus on factors like the market price of civil natural gas, the price difference between prices of urban gas use and supply, natural gas supply price, market price of industrial natural gas. Energy enterprises should build intelligent marketing management strategies based on complex scenarios, strengthen the prediction and risk response capabilities, and promote the high-quality development, so as to promote the healthy operation of China's energy industry, and serve the top-level design of national energy security.

Key words: natural gas demand, energy risk, energy security, marketing strategy, multi-factor regression model

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