Journal of Dali University ›› 2024, Vol. 9 ›› Issue (9): 40-47.DOI: 10. 3969 / j. issn. 2096-2266. 2024. 09. 006

Previous Articles     Next Articles

Analysis of the Effects of RCEP on China's Economy: Based on GTAP model

  

  • Online:2024-09-15 Published:2024-09-26

Abstract:

Today's world is experiencing a great change that has not been seen in a century. Regional bilateral trade and investment
agreements coexist with the multilateral mechanism represented by the World Trade Organization (WTO), and the signing of RCEP is an important breakthrough in realizing the new development paradigm of China's domestic and international circulations. Under the general equilibrium framework, based on the GTAP model, the simulation predicts the short-term and long-term impacts on China's economy when different Regional Trade Agreements come into effect. The simulation results show that TPP and TTIP will adversely affect China's trade flows, terms of trade, welfare level, economic growth, etc., while the impacts of CPTPP, China-Japan-Korea free trade area, and RCEP are more complicated, but overall the economic effects of the entry into force will be more favorable than unfavorable. This finding provides a the oretical and scientific basis for how China will lay out its regional value chain and actively promote multilateral and bilateral development in the future.

Key words:  Regional Trade Agreements, GTAP model, economic effects, RCEP