关键词: 混沌, 复杂性, 国际油价, 不确定性, 非线性

Abstract: The paper，from the perspective of complex system′s chaos theory，aims to analyze the complexity of international crude oil price fluctuations and of international crude oil market running system.The analysis suggests that international oil price fluctuation is a nonlinear system network constituted by international economy，finance，oil production，trade，consumption and geopolitics.And from the non-equilibrium between the supply of oil production and the spatial distribution of the consumer market(imbalance of the regional structure of oil supply and demand) and imbalance between the economic attributes of oil and political，financial speculative property，we analyze the characteristics of uncertainty and chaos of the international oil price fluctuations，as well as the factors causing uncertainty in international oil price fluctuations.

Key words: chaos, complexity, global oil price, uncertainty, nonlinearity