低品位油藏经营风险评价模型及其应用

聂振霞1，赵小军1，刘浩瀚2

NIE Zhenxia1，ZHAO Xiaojun1，LIU Haohan

1.Research Institute of Geoscience，Shengli Oil Field，Sinopec，Dongying Shangdong 257015，China；2.School of Science，Southwest Petroleum University，Chengdu Sichuan 610500，China

摘要：

针对目前低品位油藏开发难度大、开发及经营风险不确定等实际情况，在定义

低品位油藏的基础上，定量分析了低品位油藏经营风险,并进一步对开发指标影响因素

进行了研究，确定各个影响因素所服从的分布特征及对开发指标影响的程度；通过引进

概率分析法，结合低品位油藏开发风险与其他经营风险情况，建立了低品位油藏经营风

险评价一般化模型；将该模型应用到低品位油田开发实际中，对低品位油藏开发风险及

其他经营风险进行定量评价分析研究并求解该模型，取得了好的评价结果，为降低低品

位油藏的经营风险提供了理论支撑。

关键词: 低品位油藏, 风险评价, 概率分析法, 评价模型, 油藏经营管理

Abstract:

Low grade reservoir is difficult to develop and is of uncertain

operating risk.The authors carry out a quantitative analysis of the

operating risk of low grade reservoir and a further study is done about

factors influencing development of such reservoir.The study determines the

degree to which these factors influence the development.Probabilistic method

is applied to the establishment of a general model for operating risk

evaluation.This model was applied to practical development of low grade oil

field，during which developing and operating risks of low grade reservoir

were analyzed on a quantitative basis and the model was resolved with good

results.

Key words: low grade oil field, risk evaluation, probabilistic method

中图分类号:

聂振霞;赵小军;刘浩瀚. 低品位油藏经营风险评价模型及其应用[J]. 西南石油大学学报(社会科学版), 2010, 4(2): 12-16.

NIE Zhenxia;ZHAO Xiaojun;LIU Haohan. EVALUATION MODEL OF OPERATING RISK OF LOW GRADE RESERVOIR[J]. 西南石油大学学报(社会科学版), 2010, 4(2): 12-16.

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