Abstract:

Taking oil price and influencing factors as an integral subject，

this paper studies the systematic structure and dynamic features of oil

prices and carries out a systematic simulation about oil price (system

output) and influencing factors (system input) based on functional

simulation (differential simulation and BP Neural Network).A corresponding

simulation model is established and system simulation algorithm is devised

and as a result，“oil price simulation software” is developed，which is

tested in oil price prediction with success.The resulting data prove to be

more precise than those from other predicting method.This study offers a

tool for oil price prediction and lay a foundation for studies on oil price

control.

Key words: oil price prediction, influencing factors, differential