Abstract:

Low grade reservoir is difficult to develop and is of uncertain

operating risk.The authors carry out a quantitative analysis of the

operating risk of low grade reservoir and a further study is done about

factors influencing development of such reservoir.The study determines the

degree to which these factors influence the development.Probabilistic method

is applied to the establishment of a general model for operating risk

evaluation.This model was applied to practical development of low grade oil

field，during which developing and operating risks of low grade reservoir

were analyzed on a quantitative basis and the model was resolved with good

results.

Key words: low grade oil field, risk evaluation, probabilistic method