西南石油大学学报(自然科学版)

• 石油与天然气工程 • 上一篇    下一篇

试油层非线性产量预测模型研究

张明禄1,2,张建国2,王本成3,4 *,何磊2,艾庆琳2   

  1. 1.“低渗透油气田勘探开发”国家工程实验室· 长庆油田,陕西西安710000;2. 中国石油长庆油田分公司,陕西西安710000;
    3. 中国石化西南油气分公司博士后科研工作站,四川成都610041;4. 中国石化西南油气分公司勘探开发研究院,四川成都610041
  • 出版日期:2015-12-01 发布日期:2015-12-01
  • 通讯作者: 王本成,E-mail:wangbenc1@163.com
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学青年基金(51304164);西南石油大学研究生创新基金(CXJJ2015038)。

Study on The Prediction Model of Oil Testing Formation#br# Non-linear Productivity

Zhang Minglu1,2, Zhang Jianguo2, Wang Bencheng3,4*, He Lei2, Ai Qinlin2   

  1. 1. National Engineering Laboratory of Low Permeability Oil-gas Reservoir Exploitation,Changqing Oilfield,Xi′ an,Shaanxi 710000
    2. ChangQing Oil Field Filiale,Petrochina,Xi′ an,Shaanxi 710000,China
    3. Post-Doctoral Scientific Research Station,Southwest Oil & Gas Branch Company,SINOPEC,Chengdu,Sichuan 610041,China
    4. Exploration & Production Research Institute,Southwest Oil & Gas Branch Company,SINOPEC,Chengdu,Sichuan 610041,China
  • Online:2015-12-01 Published:2015-12-01

摘要:

准确的产量预测是油田勘探开发的重要研究任务,而常规的预测方法无法应用于开发初期。同一勘探区块,
试油层产量与各影响因素存在一定的相关性。首先建立了产量与各静、动态参数的一元非线性回归模型,然后将其作
为新的自变量,进行多元线性回归,最后获得了预测试油层产量的非线性回归模型。现场实际应用表明,建立的多元
非线性模型比线性模型预测精度更高,适用性更好。为该勘探区块试油层措施改造决策提供了科学的指导,提高了试
油经济效益。

关键词: 勘探试油, 试油层, 产量预测, 多元回归, 非线性回归

Abstract:

The accurate productivity prediction is an important research task in the process of exploration and development of
oil filed. However,conventional prediction methods are inapplicable for the early stage of oil development. There is a certain
correlation between oil-test formation production and all related factors in the same exploration blocks. A nonlinear regression
model between the production and all static or dynamic parameters is established,which is used as a new independent variable
to start multiple linear regression. Finally a non-linear regression model used for the prediction of oil-test formation production
is obtained. Nonlinear model is more accurate in prediction and more applicable compared with multivariate linear models. It
provides scientific guidance for deciding the oil-test formation reconstruct method in the exploration block and increases the
economic benefits of oil testing.

Key words: exploration and oil-test, oil-test formation, productivity prediction, multiple regression, nonlinear regression

中图分类号: