西南石油大学学报(自然科学版) ›› 2001, Vol. 23 ›› Issue (4): 71-73.DOI: 10.3863/j.issn.1000-2634.2001.04.21

• 石油经济管理 • 上一篇    下一篇

灰色方法在原油单位生产成本预测中的应用

吴江 刘先涛
  

  1. (西南石油学院经济管理学院,四川 南充 637001)
  • 收稿日期:2000-09-26 修回日期:1900-01-01 出版日期:2001-08-20 发布日期:2001-08-20

APPLICATION OF GREY MODEL FOR PREDICTION OF CRUDE OIL UNIT PRODUCTION COST

WU Jiang LIU Xian-tao
  

  1. ( Southwest Petroleum Institute, Nanchong,Sichuan 637001, China)
  • Received:2000-09-26 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2001-08-20 Published:2001-08-20

摘要:

在市场经济条件下,企业要想在激烈的市场竞争中求得生存和发展,必须切实加强企业管理,提高生产经营活动的经济效益。成本管理是企业管理工作中的一项重要内容,而低成本策略则是企业在竞争中取得竞争优势的重要策略之一。从加强成本管理的角度出发,分析了原油单位生产成本特点,建立了原油单位生产成本的阶跃灰色模型。通过实例计算分析表明,给出的模型比其它模型预测结果更准确,更能满足实际工作的需要。最后指出,成本变化的规律不同,预测模型也不相同,在实际工作中,应根据实际情况选择合适的预测模型。

关键词: 预测, 原油, 生产成本, 灰色系统

Abstract:

Under the conditions of the market economy, the enterprise must reinforce the management and enhance the economy benefit of management if it wants to keep developing in the challenging market competition. The cost management is an important content in the enterprise management, and the low cost strategy is one of the most important strategies in the com petition among the enterprise. From the reinforced cost man agement, it analyzed the characteristic of the crude oil unit cost, and the stepped grey model of the crude oil unit production cost was established. The results of the actual examples were presented in the paper, which was more accurate than any other prediction models, and it can meet the requirement of the actual work. Finally, it should be pointed out that the different cost variations to lead to different prediction models, in actual operation, it should be selected the proper prediction model according to the actual cases.

Key words: prediction, crude oil, production cost, grey system.

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