Uncertainty Analysis on Failure Consequence of Oil Pipeline Pool Fire

doi:10.11885/j.issn.1674-5086.2022.03.04.02

Abstract

Abstract: The occurrence of pool fire in oil pipeline is sudden and random. For this purpose, The uncertainty analysis model of oil pipeline pool fire accident was established by taking the three factors that have great influence on the heat radiation flux of the pool as the uncertainty parameters. The three factors were the diameter of the pool, the combustion rate and the wind speed. The value range of each uncertainty parameter was determined based on an engineering example and 30~000 random combination samples were obtained by Latin hypercube sampling method. and then, monte carlo method was used to analyze the distribution characteristics of heat radiation flux in the pool fire, and the statistical law of pool fire fatality rate at different locations away from the accident point was obtained. The results show that the mean thermal radiation flux and fatality rate decrease with the increase of distance from the accident site. The distribution of lethal areas can provide a basis for the classification of risk areas around the pipeline.

Key words: oil pipeline, pool fire, Latin hypercube sampling, Monte Carlo method, fatality rate, uncertainty analysis

CLC Number:

TE88

XU Jingyuan, CHEN Jingdong, WANG Qianru, CHEN Huayan. Uncertainty Analysis on Failure Consequence of Oil Pipeline Pool Fire[J]. Journal of Southwest Petroleum University(Science & Technology Edition), 2022, 44(5): 159-165.

0
/ / Recommend

Add to citation manager EndNote|Ris|BibTeX

URL: http://journal15.magtechjournal.com/Jwk_xnzk/EN/10.11885/j.issn.1674-5086.2022.03.04.02

http://journal15.magtechjournal.com/Jwk_xnzk/EN/Y2022/V44/I5/159

References

[1] PARRY G W. Uncertainty in PRA and its implications for use in risk-informed decision making[C]. New York: The 4th International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management, 1998.
[2] BEERENS H I. The use of generic failure frequencies in QRA: The quality and use of failure frequencies and how to bring them up-to date[J]. Journal of Hazardous Materials, 2006, 130(3): 265-270.
[3] ZHANG Peihong, HAO Yujun, LI Zijian. Experiment on the effect of environmental humidity on the pool fire in confined space[J]. Journal of Northeastern University (Natural Science), 2019, 40(9): 1355-1359. doi: 10.12068/j.issn.1005-3026.2019.09.024 张培红, 郝宇军, 李子建. 环境湿度影响受限空间池火的实验[J]. 东北大学学报(自然科学版), 2019, 40(9): 1355-1359. doi: 10.12068/j.issn.1005-3026.2019.09.024
[4] LIU Chunxiang. Effects of ullage height on burning behaviors of pool fires[D]. Hefei: University of Science and Technology of China, 2021. 刘春祥. 边缘高度影响下油池火燃烧行为研究[D]. 合肥: 中国科学技术大学, 2021.
[5] MA L, NMIRA F, CONSALVI J L. Large eddy simulation of medium of medium-scale methanol pool fires-effects of pool boundary conditions[J]. Combustion and Flame, 2020, 222: 336-354.
[6] QIAN Xinming, FENG Changgen. Study on simulation and application of the release and dispersion of flammable and explosive materials[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 1997, 7(3): 30-33. doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.1997.03.007 钱新明, 冯长根. 易燃易爆危险物质泄漏扩散仿真及其应用的研究[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 1997, 7(3): 30-33. doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.1997.03.007
[7] SUN Dongliang, DU Feng, JIANG Juncheng. Parameter uncertainty analysis of sealed gasoline tank leaking pool fire risk assessment[J]. Chemical Engineering of Oil | Gas, 2009, 38(5): 448-452. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1007-3426.2009.05.022 孙东亮, 杜峰, 蒋军成. 密闭汽油罐泄漏池火灾风险评估中的参数不确定性分析[J]. 石油与天然气化工, 2009, 38(5): 448-452. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1007-3426.2009.05.022
[8] KUANG Chen. Investigation into burning rate, heat feedback mechanisms and radiation properties of pool fire in cross flow[D]. Hefei: University of Science and Technology of China, 2019. 邝辰. 环境风作用下池火燃烧速率、热反馈机制及辐射特性研究[D]. 合肥: 中国科学技术大学, 2019.
[9] LIU Yanlin. Research on risk assessment method of SL airport apron pipelines[D]. Chengdu: Southwest Petroleum University, 2018. 刘彦麟. SL机场机坪管道风险评价方法研究[D]. 成都: 西南石油大学, 2018.
[10] ZHENG Xin. Study on prediction model of thermal radiation and evaluation of fire spacing in LNG tank[D]. Chengdu: Southwest Petroleum University, 2014. 郑昕. LNG池火热辐射预测模型及防火间距评价研究[D]. 成都: 西南石油大学, 2014.
[11] ZHU Jianhua, CHU Jiacheng. Calculation of pool fire characteristic parameters and evaluation of heat radiation hazard[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2003, 13(6): 25-28. doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2003.06.008 朱建华, 褚家成. 池火特性参数计算及其热辐射危害评价[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2003, 13(6): 25-28. doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2003.06.008
[12] XIE Dingshan, LIAO Yong, WANG Fei, et al. Research on factors affecting the thermal radiation safety distance for LNG storage tank[J]. Oil and Gas Treating and Processing, 2016, 34(3): 24-28. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-5539.2016.03.006 谢顶杉, 廖勇, 王非, 等. LNG储罐火灾热辐射的安全距离影响因素研究[J]. 天然气与石油, 2016, 34(3): 24-28. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-5539.2016.03.006
[13] TANG F, HE Q, WEN J. Effects of crosswind and burner aspect ratio on flame characteristics and flame base drag length of diffusion flames[J]. Combustion and Flame, 2019, 200: 265-275.
[14] ABRAHAMSSON M. Uncertainty in quantitative risk analysis-characterisation and methods of treatment[R]. Lund: Lund University, 2002.
[15] ALZBUTAS R, TOMAS I, POVILAITIS M, et al. Risk and uncertainty analysis of gas pipeline failure and gas combustion consequence[J]. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 2014, 28(6): 1431-1446.
[16] SHEN Di. Application Research of bayesian machine learning in fire forecasting and source intensity back-calculation[D]. Hefei: University of Science and Technology of China, 2021. 沈迪. 贝叶斯机器学习在火灾正向预测与源强发算中的应用研究[D]. 合肥: 中国科学技术大学, 2021.
[17] PAN Feng. Optimization design of oil and gas gathering pipeline network based on uncertainty analysis[D]. Daqing: Northeast Petroleum University, 2018. 潘峰. 基于不确定性分析的油气集输管网优化设计[D]. 大庆: 东北石油大学, 2018.
[18] HENRY E J. Reliability engineering and risk analysis[M]. LÜ Yingzhong, HUANG Xiangrui, GAO Jinzhong, et al, trans. Beijing: Atomic Energy Press, 1988. HENRY E J. 可靠性工程与风险分析[M]. 吕应中, 黄祥瑞, 高金中, 等, 译. 北京: 原子能出版社, 1988.
[19] GARCIA-DIAZJ C, GOZALVEZ-ZAFRILLA J M. Uncertainty and sensitive analysis of environmental model for risk assessment: An industrial case study[J]. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2012, 107(4): 16-22.
[20] ZHANG J, MAN J, LIN G, et al. Inverse modeling of hydrologic systems with adaptive multi-fidelity Markov chain simulations[J]. Water Resources Research, 2017, 54(7): 4867-4886. doi: 10.1029/2018WR022658
[21] THEOBALD M R, SANZ-COBENA A, VALLEJO A, et al. Suitability and uncertainty of two models for the simulasimulation of ammonia dispersion from a pig farm located in an area with frequent calm conditions[J]. Atmospheric Environment, 2015, 102: 167-175.
[22] BOSCH C J H, WETERINGS R A P M. Methods for the calculation of physical effects: due to releases of hazardous materials (liquids and gases)[M]. Hague: Publicatiereeks Gevaarlijke Stoffen, 2005.
[23] RAJ P K. NFPA 59A vapor dispersion and thermal radiation models in the light of new data[R]. NC: AGA-NFPA59A Standards Workshop Charlotte, 2006.
[24] ZHANG Longmei, JIANG Pan, LU Shunqing. Research on the comparison and analysis of pool fire thermal radiation quantitative model[J]. Industrial Safety and Environmental Protection, 2015, 41(9): 58-61. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-425X.2015.09.017 张龙梅, 蒋攀, 鲁顺清. 池火灾热辐射量化模型对比分析研究[J]. 工业安全环保, 2015, 41(9): 58-61. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-425X.2015.09.017
[25] Qingdao Safety Engineering Research Institute of China Petrochemical Co. Ltd. A guidance for quantitative risk assessment in the petrochemical plant[M]. Beijing: China Petrochemical Press, 2007. 中国石油化工股份有限公司青岛安全工程研究院. 石化装置定量风险评估指南[M]. 北京: 中国石化出版社, 2007.
[26] MCGRATTAN K B, HAMINS R B A. Thermal radiation from large pool fires[R]. Fire Safety Engineering Division Building and Fire Research Laboratory, USA, 2000.
[27] State Administration of Work Safety. Guidelines for quantitative risk assessment of chemical enterprises: AQ/T 3046—2013[S]. Beijing: China Standards Press, 2013. 国家安全生产监督管理总局. 化工企业定量风险评价导则: AQ/T 3046—2013[S]. 北京: 中国标准出版社, 2013.
[28] GAO Jun, HUANG Zaixing. Parameter sensitivity analysis for viscoelastic damage constitutive model of PBX materials[J]. Engineering Mechanics, 2015, 32(2): 201-206. doi: 10.6052/j.issn.1000-4750.2013.12.1209 高军, 黄再兴. PBX炸药粘弹性损伤本构模型参数敏感度分析[J]. 工程力学, 2015, 32(2): 201-206. doi: 10.6052/j.issn.1000-4750.2013.12.1209
[29] AN Jianchuan. Sensitivity analysis for uncertain factors of gas pipeline leakage model[J]. Journal of Southwest Petroleum University (Science | Technology Edition), 2021, 43(1): 149-156. doi: 10.11885/j.issn.1674-5086.2020.06.29.03 安建川. 输气管道泄漏模型不确定性因素敏感性分析[J]. 西南石油大学学报(自然科学版), 2021, 43(1): 149-156. doi: 10.11885/j.issn.1674-5086.2020.06.29.03