RCEP生效对中国经济的影响效应分析——基于GTAP模型

doi:10. 3969 / j. issn. 2096-2266. 2024. 09. 006

大理大学学报 ›› 2024, Vol. 9 ›› Issue (9): 40-47.DOI: 10. 3969 / j. issn. 2096-2266. 2024. 09. 006

RCEP生效对中国经济的影响效应分析——基于GTAP模型

1.浙江旅游职业学院旅行服务与管理学院；2.浙江工业大学经济学院

出版日期:2024-09-15 发布日期:2024-09-26
作者简介:金姿，助教，博士研究生，主要从事国际贸易理论与政策研究。
基金资助:
浙江旅游职业学院高层次培育课题项目（2024GCCQ5）

Analysis of the Effects of RCEP on China's Economy: Based on GTAP model

Online:2024-09-15 Published:2024-09-26

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

当今世界正遇百年未有之大变局，区域双边贸易投资协定与以世界贸易组织（WTO）为代表的多边机制并存，RCEP的签署是实现我国国内国际双循环新发展格局的重要突破口。在一般均衡框架下，基于GTAP模型模拟预测不同区域贸易协定生效后对我国经济产生的短期与长期影响。模拟结果表明：TPP与TTIP会对我国的贸易流量、贸易条件、福利水平、经济增长等产生不利影响；而CPTPP、中日韩自贸区、RCEP的影响要更为复杂，但总体来说推动生效后的经济效应利大于弊。这一发现为中国今后如何在区域价值链布局，积极推动贸易投资多边与双边发展提供了理论科学依据。

关键词: 区域贸易协定, GTAP模型, 经济效应, RCEP

Abstract:

Today's world is experiencing a great change that has not been seen in a century. Regional bilateral trade and investment

agreements coexist with the multilateral mechanism represented by the World Trade Organization （WTO）, and the signing of RCEP is an important breakthrough in realizing the new development paradigm of China's domestic and international circulations. Under the general equilibrium framework, based on the GTAP model, the simulation predicts the short-term and long-term impacts on China's economy when different Regional Trade Agreements come into effect. The simulation results show that TPP and TTIP will adversely affect China's trade flows, terms of trade, welfare level, economic growth, etc., while the impacts of CPTPP, China-Japan-Korea free trade area, and RCEP are more complicated, but overall the economic effects of the entry into force will be more favorable than unfavorable. This finding provides a the oretical and scientific basis for how China will lay out its regional value chain and actively promote multilateral and bilateral development in the future.

Key words: Regional Trade Agreements, GTAP model, economic effects, RCEP

金　姿, . RCEP生效对中国经济的影响效应分析——基于GTAP模型[J]. 大理大学学报, 2024, 9(9): 40-47.

Jin Zi. Analysis of the Effects of RCEP on China's Economy: Based on GTAP model[J]. Journal of Dali University, 2024, 9(9): 40-47.

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RCEP生效对中国经济的影响效应分析——基于GTAP模型

Analysis of the Effects of RCEP on China's Economy: Based on GTAP model

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