在房地产热之后看我国汇率政策两难选择

doi:10.3863/j.issn.1674-5094.2009.06.012

西南石油大学学报(社会科学版) ›› 2009, Vol. 2 ›› Issue (6): 58-61.DOI: 10.3863/j.issn.1674-5094.2009.06.012

在房地产热之后看我国汇率政策两难选择

陈雪¹ 尹宇明²

1.西南石油大学经济管理学院，四川成都 610500； 2.电子科技大学经济与管理学院，四川成都 610054

收稿日期:1900-01-01 修回日期:1900-01-01 出版日期:2009-11-20 发布日期:2009-11-20

PREDICAMENT OF CHINA′S EXCHANGE RATE REGIME AFTER REAL ESTATE CRAZE

CHEN Xue¹ YIN Yu-ming²

1.School of Economics and Management，Southwest Petroleum University，Chengdu Sichuan 610500，China； 2.School of Management and Economics of University of Electronic Science and Technology of China，Chengdu Sichuan 610000，China

Received:1900-01-01 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2009-11-20 Published:2009-11-20

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 我国房地产价格未来的走势以及汇率政策面临的压力和挑战成为社会关注的问题。通过对日本等3个国家和香港经济起飞阶段房地产市场价格波动原因的比较分析，认为汇率政策与资产价格变动之间存在较高的相关关系，指出在外部经济环境恶劣、投机性资本可能撤离的情况下，我国房地产投资降温是不争的事实。同时针对我国汇率政策面临的困境，利用“三元悖论”理论进一步探讨了在汇率制度困境下我国房地产投资过热的形成机制。并提出了保持汇率制度稳定、调整经济结构、扩大投融资渠道等政策建议，对防止我国房地产价格大起大落、化解我国外汇制度与国内经济发展之间的不协调有一定的借鉴意义。

关键词: 房地产, 汇率制度, 两难选择, 三元悖论, 热钱, 金融市场

Abstract: Through an analysis of the reasons of real estate price fluctuation in Hong Kong，Japan and other two nations，the authors find out that there is a close relationship between exchange rate policy and asset price fluctuation.With deteriorating external economic environment and possible withdrawal of speculative capital，investment in real estate market will undoubtedly drop in China.Then the authors，based on the Impossible Trinity，further discuss the generative mechanism of the overheat investment in real estate market in the context of current exchange rate policy.It is pointed out in the end that constant exchange rate regime，better economic structure and extended investment and financing channel can，to a certain degree，prevent major rises and falls of real estate market and harmonize foreign exchange rate policy and domestic economic development.

Key words: real estate, exchange rate regime, predicament, the Impossible Trinity, refugee capital, financial market

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