Abstract: Shandong, a large economic province in China, relies mainly on coal-based energy-intensive industries for its economic development. Carbon emission problem has become increasingly prominent has aggravated air pollution in the province. In order to achieve green economic development, Shandong Province has issued a series of low-carbon development programs and policies. The LMDI method is used for decomposition analysis of the effects of the driving factors of carbon emission in Shandong Province. The results show that economic output, energy consumption structure and industrial structure are factors that promote the growth of carbon emissions, and energy intensity will inhibit the growth of carbon emissions. In addition, the gray Verhulst model is used to predict the overall trend of carbon emissions in Shandong Province in the future. Based on the above analyses,policy recommendations are proposed for the development and implementation of energy conservation and emission reduction.

Key words: carbon emission, driving factor, LMDI method, gray theory, Verhulst model