西南石油大学学报(社会科学版) ›› 2010, Vol. 4 ›› Issue (4): 15-18.DOI: 10.3863/j.issn.1674-5094.2010.04.003

• 石油与天然气软科学 •     Next Articles

GRANGER CAUSALITY TEST AND FOR THE INTERNATIONAL OIL PRICE ON CHINA′S ECONOMY

ZHANG Sen-lina CHEN Hui-fena SHUAI Jian-xiangb   

  1. a.School of Economics and Management；b.Department of Ideological and Political Theory Teaching，South West Petroleum University，Chengdu Sichuan 610500，China
  • Received:1900-01-01 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2010-07-20

Abstract: Since 2004，significant increases in international oil prices mainly result from the imbalance between supply and demand，a weaker U.S.dollar and the speculative factors.For the purpose of analyzing the international oil prices affecting China′s economy，GDP，CPI，INV and IE have been analyzed with Granger causality test to examine causal relationship between the international oil prices and China′s macro-economic variables.From the results of Granger causality test we can see that causal relationship exists between the international oil prices and China′s GDP，IE，INV.Then，the VAR model is established for analyzing the impact degree of the international oil prices on China′s economy.

Key words: international oil price, China′s economy, Granger causality test, VAR model

CLC Number: