西南石油大学学报(社会科学版) ›› 2012, Vol. 14 ›› Issue (1): 6-10.DOI: 10.3863/j.issn.1674-5094.2012.01.002

• 石油与天然气软科学 • Previous Articles     Next Articles

MODELING AND APPLICATION OF GM(1,1),GROWTH CURVE AND MARKOV COMBINATION TO NATURAL GAS CONSUMPTION FORECAST

GAO Jun SONG Shu-gui WU Peng XIONG Jing LI Quan-feng   

  1. School of Economics and Management,Southwest Petroleum University,Chengdu Sichuan,610500,China
  • Received:1900-01-01 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2012-01-01 Published:2012-01-01

Abstract: Sichuan province is a major producer and consumer of natural gas in China,and an effective forecast of natural gas consumption serves as guidance to industry development and structure adjustment of energy consumption during the period of Sichuan′s 12th fiveyear plan,and plays a significant role in achieving the energy strategic goal of the 12th fiveyear plan.Based on standard deviation method,a forecast is made on natural gas consumption in Sichuan during 2011 and 2015 by greygrowth curve combination forecast method,followed by an adjustment on the forecast result using the Markov chain,thus improving precision.The result demonstrates that the natural gas consumption combination forecasting model has high precision and application value.

Key words: GM(1, 1), growth curve, Markov, natural gas consumption, combination forecast

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