关键词: 水平井, 产能预测, 不稳态, 耦合模型, 表皮系数

Abstract: With the development of drilling and completion technology，horizontal wells are more widely used in bottom water
reservoir as an effective way to increase productivity and reduce costs，while problems arise in the production process，which
mainly are shorter anhydrous harvest period led by water coning，and faster cut rising. Besides，completion method doesn’t
meet the requirements of the development and capacity prediction is not accurate，either. Based on the summarization of stable
horizontal well productivity prediction models，this paper uses the horizontal well productivity prediction mathematical model
under the action of the wellbore and reservoir coupling，and solves finite conductivity vertical fracturing wells pressure with
Cinco H’s dynamic calculation method，then the model of production forecast is established. The model takes the bottom water
drive reservoir horizontal well into account，and carries out the productivity prediction in different completion mode after the
decomposition calculation of skin factor in different completion mode. The results of these studies have important guiding
significance for the optimization of horizontal well completion as well as the study of horizontal well reservoir engineering.

Key words: horizontal well, productivity prediction, transient state, coupling model, skin factor