连续管全寿命安全评定与管理策略研究

doi:10.11885/j.issn.1674-5086.2020.06.03.02

西南石油大学学报(自然科学版) ›› 2021, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (2): 158-166.DOI: 10.11885/j.issn.1674-5086.2020.06.03.02

连续管全寿命安全评定与管理策略研究

钟虹¹, 何沙^1,2, 刘少胡³

1. 西南石油大学经济管理学院, 四川成都 610500;
2. 油气藏地质及开发工程国家重点实验室·西南石油大学, 四川成都 610500;
3. 长江大学机械工程学院, 湖北荆州 434000

收稿日期:2020-06-03 出版日期:2021-04-10 发布日期:2021-04-23
通讯作者: 刘少胡,E-mail:liushaoh@126.com
作者简介:钟虹,1985年生,女,汉族,四川内江人,博士研究生,主要从事设备全寿命健康管理与能源安全方面研究。E-mail:sczhongh@126.com
何沙,1959年生,男,布依族,贵州兴义人,教授,博士生导师,主要从事能源战略与能源金融研究。E-mail:hesha28@sina.com
刘少胡,1984年生,男,汉族,甘肃平凉人,副教授,博士生导师,主要从事连续管疲劳寿命评估与钻采新装备方面的研究。E-mail:liushaoh@126.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金（51974036，51604039）；中国工程科技发展战略四川研究院2019年度工程科技战略咨询研究项目（2019JDR0153）；四川石油天然气发展研究中心项目（川油气科SKB19-04）

Safety Assessment and Management Strategy of Whole Life of Coiled Tubing

ZHONG Hong¹, HE Sha^1,2, LIU Shaohu³

1. School of Economics and Management, Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu, Sichuan 610500, China;
2. State Key Laboratory of Oil and Gas Reservoir Geology and Exploitation, Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu, Sichuan 610500, China;
3. School of Mechanical Engineering, Yangtze University, Jingzhou, Hubei 434000, China

Received:2020-06-03 Online:2021-04-10 Published:2021-04-23

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 连续管是“万能作业机”的“神经线”，连续管的安全运行关乎整个施工过程，连续管服役寿命是安全运行的重要指标之一。目前对连续管作业时全寿命安全评定研究较少，探索性地利用生存分析方法研究了连续管6个影响因素，20组分变量，采用Kaplan-Meier分析方法对连续管疲劳寿命的单因素生存时间进行描述，并结合连续管服役有效时间采用Cox比例风险模型进行多因素分析，疲劳累积结果与Cox比例风险模型计算结果对比认为，该模型是可行的。研究结果表明，共线性检验和PH假定检验结果显示399个样本用于连续管生存分析是可行的；分类变量中直径、壁厚、腐蚀、焊接对连续管服役风险影响显著；大直径管（直径>50.80 mm）的风险率是小直径管（直径<50.80 mm）风险率的1.484倍；H₂S环境的腐蚀风险率是无腐蚀风险率的2.509倍；直焊缝的风险率是无焊缝风险率的5.595倍；研究结论与现场连续管失效统计结果相吻合。根据累积生存率和现场失效统计结果提出的四级评价准则对连续管在钻井、完井、气举等安全作业具有指导意义。

关键词: 生存分析, 连续管, Kaplan-Meier方法, Cox比例风险模型, 四级评价

Abstract: Coiled Tubing (CT) is the "neural line" of the "universal working machine". The safe operation of CT is related to the entire construction process. The service life of CT is one of the important indicators of the safe operation. At present, there is little study on the safety assessment of the whole life of CT operation. Survival analysis was used to study 6 influencing factors of CT and 20 component variables. The Kaplan-Meier analysis method was used to describe the single-factor survival time of CT fatigue life, and the Cox proportional hazard model was used to perform multi-factor analysis in combination with the effective time of CT service. The comparison between the cumulative fatigue results and the Cox proportional hazard model calculation results shows that the model is feasible. The research results show that collinearity test and PH hypothesis are feasible for 399 samples survival analysis; among the classification variables:OD, wall thickness, corrosion, and welding have significant effects on the risk of CT; the risk rate of large-diameter CT (diameter>50.80 mm) is 1.484 times that of smalldiameter CT (diameter<50.80mm); the corrosion risk rate of H₂S environment is 2.509 times that of no corrosion risk rate; The risk rate of straight welds is 5.595 times that of no welds; the conclusions of the study are consistent with the statistical results of field CT failure. The four-level evaluation criteria proposed based on the cumulative survival rate and field failure statistical results have guiding significance for the safe operation of the CT in drilling, completion and gas lift.

Key words: survival analysis, Coiled Tubing, Kaplan-Meier method, Cox proportional hazards model, level 4 evaluation

中图分类号:

TE980

钟虹, 何沙, 刘少胡. 连续管全寿命安全评定与管理策略研究[J]. 西南石油大学学报(自然科学版), 2021, 43(2): 158-166.

ZHONG Hong, HE Sha, LIU Shaohu. Safety Assessment and Management Strategy of Whole Life of Coiled Tubing[J]. Journal of Southwest Petroleum University(Science & Technology Edition), 2021, 43(2): 158-166.

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Safety Assessment and Management Strategy of Whole Life of Coiled Tubing

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