油气管道消极积极耦合风险评估方法

doi:10.11885/j.issn.1674-5086.2025.10.21.02

西南石油大学学报(自然科学版) ›› 2026, Vol. 48 ›› Issue (2): 149-161.DOI: 10.11885/j.issn.1674-5086.2025.10.21.02

油气管道消极积极耦合风险评估方法

蒲宏宇¹, 李毅², 尚耀平³, 阮超², 任运波⁴

1. 西南石油大学基建处, 四川成都 610500;
2. 国家石油天然气管网集团云南分公司, 云南昆明 650500;
3. 中国石油长庆油田采油十一厂, 甘肃庆阳 745000;
4. 中国石油西南油气田公司华油公司, 四川成都 610000

收稿日期:2025-10-21 发布日期:2026-04-30
通讯作者: 蒲宏宇，E-mail:705771999@qq.com
作者简介:蒲宏宇，1995年生，男，汉族，四川南充人，工程师，主要从事建筑设计和安全工程研究。E-mail:705771999@qq.com
李毅，1984年生，男，汉族，四川成都人，高级工程师，主要从事长输油气管道运行和压缩机工程管理研究。E-mail:liyi01@pipechina.com.cn
尚耀平，1974年生，男，汉族，甘肃泾川人，工程师，主要从事石油开发和设备管理工作。E-mail:denglg_cq@petrochina.com.cn
阮超，1985年生，男，汉族，湖北武汉人，高级工程师，主要从事长输油气管道运行和安全工程管理研究。E-mail:434783782@qq.com
任运波，1982年，男，汉族，四川遂宁人，工程师，主要从事地面建设和油气储运方面的工作。E-mail:renyunb@petrochina.com.cn
基金资助:
“十三五”国家重点研发计划（2016YFC0802100）

Negative-positive Coupling Risk Assessment Method for Oil and Gas Pipelines

PU Hongyu¹, LI Yi², SHANG Yaoping³, RUAN Chao², REN Yunbo⁴

1. Infrastructure Construction Department, Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu, Sichuan 610500, China;
2. Yunnan Branch, China National Petroleum & Natural Gas Pipeline Network Group Co. Ltd., Kunming, Yunnan 650500, China;
3. No. 11 Oil Production Plant, PetroChina Changqing Oilfield Branch, Qingyang, Gansu 745000, China;
4. Huayou Company, PetroChina Southwest Oil & Gasfield Company, Chengdu, Sichuan 610000, China

Received:2025-10-21 Published:2026-04-30

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 油气管道风险评估是一项复杂的系统工程，为弥补传统风险评估方法应用于中国油气管道的局限性，提出一种名为“消极积极耦合风险评估”的新方法。该方法立足于中国管道实际工况，创新性地将提升管道安全的积极因素与构成威胁的消极因素置于同一评估框架，并着重分析其间的耦合作用机制，在研究中建立了失效可能性指标框架体系和失效后果指标框架体系，给出了具体的分值计算方法，并增加了耦合作用的修正指标值。通过西南地区某输气管道实例应用，验证了该方法的可行性与有效性，耦合作用对风险值的修正幅度在6%～14%。应用该方法可精准识别风险关键控制点，为风险缓解决策提供明确方向，从而有效预防中间事件与重大事故，对降低中国油气管道事故概率、保障能源动脉安全具有重要的实践指导意义。

关键词: 油气管道, 管道安全, 安全工程, 风险评价, 风险防控, 风险耦合

Abstract: Oil and gas pipeline risk assessment is a complex systems engineering project. To address the limitations of traditional risk assessment methods when applied to China's oil and gas pipelines, this paper proposes a new method called“negativepositive coupling risk assessment ” . Based on the actual operating conditions of China's pipelines, this method innovatively integrates positive factors that enhance pipeline safety and negative factors that pose threats into the same assessment framework. It focuses on analyzing the coupling mechanism between these factors, establishes a framework system for failure probability indicators and a framework system for failure consequence indicators in the research, provides a specific score calculation method, and adds correction index values for coupling effects. Through the application of an example of a natural gas pipeline in southwest China, the feasibility and effectiveness of this method are verified. The correction range of the coupling effect on the risk value is between 6% and 14%. Applying this method can accurately identify key risk control points and provide a clear direction for risk mitigation decisions, thereby effectively preventing intermediate events and major accidents. It holds important practical guiding significance for reducing the accident probability of China's oil and gas pipelines and ensuring the safety of energy arteries.

Key words: oil and gas pipelines, pipeline safety, safety engineering, risk assessment, risk prevention and control, risk coupling

中图分类号:

TE88
P624

蒲宏宇, 李毅, 尚耀平, 阮超, 任运波. 油气管道消极积极耦合风险评估方法[J]. 西南石油大学学报(自然科学版), 2026, 48(2): 149-161.

PU Hongyu, LI Yi, SHANG Yaoping, RUAN Chao, REN Yunbo. Negative-positive Coupling Risk Assessment Method for Oil and Gas Pipelines[J]. Journal of Southwest Petroleum University(Science & Technology Edition), 2026, 48(2): 149-161.

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油气管道消极积极耦合风险评估方法

Negative-positive Coupling Risk Assessment Method for Oil and Gas Pipelines

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