Uncertainty Analysis with the Response-surface Proxy for Stochastic
Geological Models

doi:10.11885/j.issn.1674-5086.2013.08.11.06

Abstract

Abstract:

To solve the difficulty problems，which the stochastic geological model is uncertain，the paper presented the
response-surface proxy model to carried out the uncertainties method and its research process. The uncertainties with the
geomodel can’t be easily and correctly disclosed with respect to the process of the stochastically modeling that is limited by
computer’s capacity and time consumption. In the whole process，some following crucial things should be considered seriously.
All uncertainties with the geomodeling should be fully taken into account in compliance with the geological characteristics
of reservoirs. Sensitivity analysis would be carried out prior to the generating of proxy model. The sampling algorithms for
generating both the training and the validation models could be different from the predicating of the target through proxy model.
The probabilistic distribution of the target variables（oil in place as an example）can be understood through proxy model to a
great extent. Therefore，these stochastic geomodels can be picked out with respect to the probabilities in terms of the target. In
this sense，risks and potentials for the development of a reservoir can be appraised further based on the uncertainty studies.

Key words: stochastically geomodeling, response surface, proxy, uncertainty, geomodel, probability

Sun Lichun, Guo Lina, He Juan, Wu Mengyang, Ni Jun′e. Uncertainty Analysis with the Response-surface Proxy for Stochastic
Geological Models[J]. 西南石油大学学报(自然科学版), DOI: 10.11885/j.issn.1674-5086.2013.08.11.06.

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