Abstract: This paper develops a comprehensive prediction model for the diverting capacity of propped fractures using an improved Kozeny-Carman equation, incorporating factors such as proppant grain size composition, elastic-plastic deformation, embedment, and creep. The study reveals that fracture diverting capacity decreases by approximately 54% from the 100th to the 1000th day under an effective closure stress of 60 MPa. The presence of larger grain-sized proppants enhances the diverting capacity, especially at lower effective closure stresses. The addition of small grain-sized proppants can reduce the decline in capacity under higher stresses. A higher elastic modulus of the proppant or fracture wall correlates with less deformation and embedment, leading to greater diverting capacity. Additionally, larger initial fracture widths and increased proppant layering can improve capacity by minimizing embedment effects. The model also indicates that over time and with increased effective closure stress, fracture width and diverting capacity will gradually decrease due to creep.

Key words: grain size, proppant deformation, embedment, creep, diverting capacity