Abstract: By using material balance equation and conservation of energy theory, an analytic solution model of steam stimulation production prediction for horizontal well in the fractured heavy oil reservoir is developed. The analytical model includes three parts: heating dynamic calculation while injecting steam, the average pressure of reservoir and production rate prediction.
The application case of SW-SAGD in fractured heavy oil reservoir in Karamay oilfield shows that the model can be used in the dynamic prediction of starting process of SW-SAGD in the fractured heavy oil reservoir.

Key words: single well, Steam-Assisted Gravity Drainage, starting process, dynamic prediction