Journal of Southwest Petroleum University(Science & Technology Edition) ›› 2026, Vol. 48 ›› Issue (2): 149-161.DOI: 10.11885/j.issn.1674-5086.2025.10.21.02

• OIL AND GAS ENGINEERING • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Negative-positive Coupling Risk Assessment Method for Oil and Gas Pipelines

PU Hongyu1, LI Yi2, SHANG Yaoping3, RUAN Chao2, REN Yunbo4   

  1. 1. Infrastructure Construction Department, Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu, Sichuan 610500, China;
    2. Yunnan Branch, China National Petroleum & Natural Gas Pipeline Network Group Co. Ltd., Kunming, Yunnan 650500, China;
    3. No. 11 Oil Production Plant, PetroChina Changqing Oilfield Branch, Qingyang, Gansu 745000, China;
    4. Huayou Company, PetroChina Southwest Oil & Gasfield Company, Chengdu, Sichuan 610000, China
  • Received:2025-10-21 Published:2026-04-30

Abstract: Oil and gas pipeline risk assessment is a complex systems engineering project. To address the limitations of traditional risk assessment methods when applied to China's oil and gas pipelines, this paper proposes a new method called“negativepositive coupling risk assessment ” . Based on the actual operating conditions of China's pipelines, this method innovatively integrates positive factors that enhance pipeline safety and negative factors that pose threats into the same assessment framework. It focuses on analyzing the coupling mechanism between these factors, establishes a framework system for failure probability indicators and a framework system for failure consequence indicators in the research, provides a specific score calculation method, and adds correction index values for coupling effects. Through the application of an example of a natural gas pipeline in southwest China, the feasibility and effectiveness of this method are verified. The correction range of the coupling effect on the risk value is between 6% and 14%. Applying this method can accurately identify key risk control points and provide a clear direction for risk mitigation decisions, thereby effectively preventing intermediate events and major accidents. It holds important practical guiding significance for reducing the accident probability of China's oil and gas pipelines and ensuring the safety of energy arteries.

Key words: oil and gas pipelines, pipeline safety, safety engineering, risk assessment, risk prevention and control, risk coupling

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