Abstract:

In the development plan making of oilfield, production forecast ties up to the success of reservoir development. It determines the developing scale and investment, and plays an important role in improving the developing efficiency and operation performance. There are many kinds of methods to forecast the production of oilfield, such as decline curve method, neural network method, and Poisson distribution method, etc. The key point to use all these methods is parameter estimation. The widely used methods are trial solution and the least square method. They need huge calculations and their results are less reliable. A new kind of intelligent genetic algorithm was employed to get the optimal parameter. Using it in the model has proved its reliability for production forecast of oilfield.

Key words: oil and gas field, production forecast, genetic algorithm, analog, parameter