Abstract: The production performance of shale oil horizontal wells is complex, and it is difficult to predict the production performance of the whole life cycle through conventional methods. Therefore, taking the shale oil horizontal well of Lucaogou Formation in Jimsar as an example, the production process is divided into four stages by analyzing the production performance curve of a typical horizontal well in the blowout period, including soaking stage, up production stage, production decline stage and low and stable production stage. The quantitative characterization model of shale oil horizontal well is deduced and established. Combined with SPSA algorithm, the whole life cycle production performance curve fitting, prediction and parameter interpretation inversion are realized. The results show that the peak oil production and average decline rate have a great influence on the production performance curve, while the oil breakthrough time and peak time have little influence. Finally, the application of the quantitative characterization model and curve fitting optimization algorithm is carried out to prove the applicability of the model; it also shows that the model can be used as a practical and reliable method to predict the production performance of shale oil horizontal wells.

Key words: shale oil, horizontal well, production performance, characterization model, production prediction, curve fitting