关键词: font-family:宋体, ">酒精性肝病, 慢加急性肝衰竭, 预后, 影响因素分析

Abstract: Objective：To analyze the influencing factors of short-term prognosis of patients with alcoholic liver disease （ALD） related acute-on-chronic liver failure （ACLF）， and to establish a short-term prognosis evaluation model. Methods： The baseline clinical data of 96 patients with ALD-ACLF were retrospectively analyzed， and they were divided into survival group and death group according to the 90-day survival. Logistic regression analysis was used to screen the independent influencing factors of 90-day prognosis， and a prognostic evaluation model was established. Results： Among the 96 patients with ALD-ACLF， 88 patients were male. The main basis of liver disease was cirrhosis， and the main complications were ascites and infection. Logistic regression analysis showed that total bilirubin （TBIL）， prothrombin time （PT）， neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio （NLR） and co-infection were independent prognostic factors of patients with ALD-ACLF at 90 days. The prognostic evaluation model was established， which was 0.013×CTBIL+0.085×CNLR+0.575×CPT. The optimal cut-off point of the model was 16.34， the specificity was 77.55%， the sensitivity was 87.23%， and the area under the curve was 0.913. Conclusion： The prediction model established in this study has certain predictive value for short-term prognosis of patients with ALD-ACLF.

Key words: font-family:Times New Roman, ">alcoholic liver diseasefont-family:Times New Roman, ">, font-family:Times New Roman, "> acute-on-chronic liver failurefont-family:Times New Roman, ">, font-family:Times New Roman, "> prognosisfont-family:Times New Roman, ">, font-family:Times New Roman, "> analysis of influencing factors