关键词: 福建省碳排放, VAR 模型, 脉冲响应函数, 方差分解, 能源强度, 能源消费总量

Abstract:

Energy consumption and the environmental problem are hot issues to both the public and the academic community.
This paper selected related index of energy consumption and economic growth from 1994 to 2013，and analyzed energy consumption
and carbon emission in Fujian province with the vector autoregressive model（the VAR model）. The results show
that the main factors affecting carbon emissions in Fujian are total energy consumption and energy intensity；the total energy
consumption has a positive effect on carbon emissions，while the energy intensity has an adverse influence. The response of
carbon emission to the latter is more durable and unstable than that to the former. The structure impact of both factors has
bigger contribution and more obvious effect. Per capita GDP of Fujian province has a negative effect on its carbon emission，so
advocating green GDP is conducive to reducing carbon emission. On the other hand，the urbanization degree has reverse effect
on carbon emission，the response of which to urbanization degree is durable but unstable，just like that to energy intensity.
The structure impact of urbanization has smaller contribution to carbon emission，but it is also an important measure of carbon
emission reduction in Fujian.

Key words: carbon emissions in Fujian province, VAR model, impulse response function, variance decomposition, energy
intensity, the total energy consumption