关键词: 石油安全, 赫芬达尔指数, 投资组合, 石油进口来源风险, 石油进口来源多元化

Abstract:

As dependence of Chinese oil on import has continued to increase since 1993，the safety of oil import sources is becoming particularly important. We established the risk model of oil import sources based on the Herfindahl index and Markowitz portfolio model，and by using the relative data on major oil import and export countries in the world from year 2008 to 2010，we studied the correlation between diversification of oil import sources and the risks. The results showed: (1) the risk of oil import  sources in China is higher than that in United States，but lower than that in Japan and other Asian countries，and Chinese oil import sources are better risk resistant；(2) the diversification of oil import sources have significant positive correlation with the risks of oil import sources. In conclusion，both the diversification and risks of oil import sources are on a downward trend in China，which indicates that China has paid much more attention on energy security than ever.