Abstract: An empirical study about the relationship between oil import and economic growth is made using vector autoregression model（VARM），and the conclusion that there is a longterm equilibrium between the two variables. The paper also analyzes the longterm and shortterm causal relation between the two based on the result of Granger causality test.The result reveals that economic growth is the Granger cause of oil import and Chinese oil industry may obtain endogenous technological progress impelled by the increase of cost.We also find that Chinese economic growth and oil import is Granger cause of international oil price.The paper also makes a prediction of oil import volume in the next 11 years using VAR model.

Key words: economic growth, oil import volume, VAR model, GDP, Granger causality 