Influence Mechanism of the Population Aging on Industrial Structure Upgrading in China

Abstract

Abstract: the Continuous promotion of industrial structure upgrading is an important way to achieve high-quality development in the context of population aging.Using provincial panel data from 1998 to 2022, we study the impact of population aging on China's industrial structure upgrading, and the find out that: population aging will have a significant negative impact on the industrial structure upgrading of the neighboring regions in the early stage due to the "siphon effect" , which leads to significant "U" non-linear characteristics of the indirect and total effects of population aging on industrial structure upgrading ; population aging positively affects industrial structure upgrading by improving consumption structure, expanding consumption scale, and promoting human capital accumulation. However, it also has a blocking effect on industrial structure upgrading by triggering investment decline, labor supply shortage, and labor productivity growth slowdown; regions with a deeper degree of population aging have significantly promoted industrial structure upgrading by promoting consumption and improving human capital levels. In order for population aging to play a positive role in population aging on the upgrading of the regional industrial structure, the Government should solidly promote coordinated regional development, strive to upgrade the consumption structure and expand the scale of consumption, and continue to promote the accumulation of human capital.

Key words: population aging, demographic dividend, industrial structure, consumption structure, high-quality development, new quality productivity

CLC Number:

C913.6

SHAO Hongmei, DING Hongyu, LI Tongping, DUAN Pingzhong. Influence Mechanism of the Population Aging on Industrial Structure Upgrading in China[J]. Journal of Southwest Petroleum University(Social Sciences Edition), 2025, 27(3): 37-52.

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