概率法在岩性气藏储量风险评估中的应用

doi:10.11885/j.issn.1674-5086.2019.09.16.04

西南石油大学学报(自然科学版) ›› 2020, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (3): 60-68.DOI: 10.11885/j.issn.1674-5086.2019.09.16.04

概率法在岩性气藏储量风险评估中的应用

尹涛¹, 杨屹铭², 靳锁宝³, 江乾锋⁴, 孟德伟⁵

1. 中国石油西南油气田分公司天然气经济研究所, 四川成都 610051;
2. 中国石油川庆钻探工程有限公司地质勘探开发研究院, 四川成都 610051;
3. 中国石油长庆油田分公司气田开发事业部, 陕西西安 710018;
4. 中国石油长庆油田分公司勘探开发研究院, 陕西西安 710018;
5. 中国石油勘探开发研究院, 北京海淀 100083

收稿日期:2019-09-16 出版日期:2020-06-10 发布日期:2020-06-10
通讯作者: 尹涛,E-mail:yint1_cq@petrochina.com.cn
作者简介:尹涛,1986年生,男,汉族,四川金堂人,工程师,硕士,主要从事油气田开发与技术经济评价等方面的研究工作。E-mail:yint1_cq@petrochina.com.cn;杨屹铭,1986年生,男,汉族,四川南充人,工程师,硕士,主要从事地质开发类分析研究工作。E-mail:yangym_dyy@cnpc.com.cn;靳锁宝,1984年生,男,汉族,陕西西安人,工程师,硕士,主要从事气田开发管理方面的工作。E-mail:jsb_cq@petrochina.com.cn;江乾锋,1985年生,男,汉族,四川岳池人,工程师,硕士,主要从事气田开发方面的研究工作。E-mail:jqf1_cq@petrochina.com.cn;孟德伟,1985年生,男,汉族,河北滦县人,工程师,硕士,主要从事低渗致密气藏开发与评价方面的研究工作。E-mail:mengdewei@petrochina.com.cn
基金资助:
国家科技重大专项（2016ZX05050）；中国石油天然气股份有限公司重大科技专项（2016E-0509）

Application of Probability Method in the Reserves Risk Evaluation of Lithologic Gas Reservoirs

YIN Tao¹, YANG Yiming², JIN Suobao³, JIANG Qianfeng⁴, MENG Dewei⁵

1. Natural Gas Economics Research Institute, Southwest Oil&Gas Field Company, PetroChina, Chengdu, Sichuan 610051, China;
2. Geologic Exploration and Development Research Institute, Chuanqing Drilling Engineering Co. Ltd., CNPC, Chengdu, Sichuan 610051, China;
3. Gas Field Development Division, Changqing Oilfield Company, PetroChina, Xi'an, Shaanxi 710018, China;
4. Exploration and Development Research Institute, Changqing Oilfield Company, PetroChina, Xi'an, Shaanxi 710018, China;
5. Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration&Development, PetroChina, Haidian, Beijing 100083, China

Received:2019-09-16 Online:2020-06-10 Published:2020-06-10

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 苏里格气田属于典型的致密岩性气藏，储层横向变化快、非均质性强，利用确定法难以客观评估储量风险。为此以气田X区为例，采用概率法开展储量风险评估研究，通过各变量的概率分布函数和多次随机模拟计算，定量评估气藏参数的不确定性和不同风险对应储量规模，结合单因素敏感性分析，明确气藏主要风险因素，优化地质模型计算的储量结果。研究表明，（1）概率法模拟计算的地质储量概率分布，提供了不同风险下的地质储量，有助于投资决策和开发方案制定；（2）参数变量的敏感性分析能确定影响各层储量结果的主要参数，对参数敏感性进行排序，估算变量变化区间对储量结果的影响，实现缩短储量评价周期和提高评价准确性；（3）地质模型储量与概率法的基准储量（P₅₀）进行对比，结合单因素敏感性分析，调整模型属性参数，优化后的X区各小层地质模型储量与基准储量的误差均在10%以内。概率法对岩性气藏给出不同风险下的储量规模，能客观评估储量风险，优化地质模型。

关键词: 地质储量, 概率法, 岩性气藏, 不确定性评价, 敏感性分析, 苏里格气田

Abstract: Sulige Gas Field is a typical tight and lithologic gas reservoir, with the reservoir characters of variation and heterogeneity, which makes it difficult to evaluate the risk of reserves using determine method objectively. Probabilistic method is used in the X Block to evaluate the uncertainty and risk of reserves. Through the probability distribution function of each variable and multiple random simulation calculations, the uncertainty of gas reservoir parameters and reserves corresponding to different risks are quantitatively evaluated. Combined with single-factor sensitivity analysis, the main risk factors of gas reservoirs are identified and the reserves calculated by the geological model are optimized. And the following research results were obtained. First, the probability distribution of geological reserves simulated by probability method provides the geological reserves under different risks, which is helpful for investment decision and development plan formulation. Second, the sensitivity analysis of parameter variables can determine the main parameters affecting the reserves results of each layer, rank the sensitivity of parameters, estimate the impact of variable change interval on the reserves results, shorten the reserves evaluation cycle and improve the evaluation accuracy. Third, the reserves of the geological model were compared with the reference reserves (P₅₀) of the probabilistic method. Combined with the single-factor sensitivity analysis, the model attribute parameters were adjusted, and the error between the reserves of the optimized geological model and the reference reserves of each small layer in the X Block was within 10%. In conclusion, the probability method gives the reserve scale of lithologic gas reservoirs under different risks, which can objectively evaluate the reserve risk and achieve the purpose of optimizing the geological model.

Key words: geological reserves, probabilistic method, lithologic gas reservoir, uncertainty evaluation, sensitivity analysis, Sulige Gas Field

中图分类号:

TE155

尹涛, 杨屹铭, 靳锁宝, 江乾锋, 孟德伟. 概率法在岩性气藏储量风险评估中的应用[J]. 西南石油大学学报(自然科学版), 2020, 42(3): 60-68.

YIN Tao, YANG Yiming, JIN Suobao, JIANG Qianfeng, MENG Dewei. Application of Probability Method in the Reserves Risk Evaluation of Lithologic Gas Reservoirs[J]. 西南石油大学学报(自然科学版), 2020, 42(3): 60-68.

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概率法在岩性气藏储量风险评估中的应用

Application of Probability Method in the Reserves Risk Evaluation of Lithologic Gas Reservoirs

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