西南石油大学学报(自然科学版) ›› 1989, Vol. 11 ›› Issue (1): 48-57.DOI: 10.3863/j.issn.1000-2634.1989.01.006

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

油气田动态灰色预测模型的选择方法

李大昌   

  1. 开发系
  • 收稿日期:1988-05-31 修回日期:1900-01-01 出版日期:1989-02-20 发布日期:1989-02-20

A METHOD FOR SELECTING GREY MODELS OF DYNAMIC PREDICTION OF OIL AND GAS FIELDS

Li Dachang   

  1. Department of Oil Exploitation
  • Received:1988-05-31 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:1989-02-20 Published:1989-02-20

摘要: 现有六种油气田动态预测的灰色系统模型,但在实际应用中需要根据具体油气田选择适当的模型。本文从关联度的概念出发,提出了一种灰色模型的选取方法,经过实例验证,证明行之有效,从而克服了选取预测模型的盲目性。另一方面,文中对各时间序列(如压力、油产量、气产量及水产量)间的相互影响给出了定量描述,使预测过程更主动。

关键词: 油气藏动态, 预测模型, 选择, 关联度

Abstract: There are six grey models of dynamic prediction of oil and gas fields, but an appropriate model should be selected according to a certain oil or gas field in practice. Starting with the relation degree, this paper has presented a method for selecting a grey model,which could best fit the oil and gas field. And some practical examples have proved the method to be correct. Therefore, the blindness in selecting a grey model can be avoided. On the other hand, the quantitative description of the mutual influence.

Key words: Grey Model, Oil-gas fields Dynamic prediction, selection, Relation degree