Abstract: In this paper, we have introduced the grey theory and the model establishing method, by which the grey forecast model of industrial total output values is established, and compared the model with the econometric model. The former has higher observation value in fluctuation-range than the latter. Using the grey model, we have computed forecast values of the oil industrial total output values in 1988, 1989, 1990, 1991, etc. We ve also pointed out the limitation of the grey model and presented the methods of eliminating it.

Key words: Oil industry, Output forecast, Output value, Grey theory