Application of Probability Method in the Reserves Risk Evaluation of Lithologic Gas Reservoirs

doi:10.11885/j.issn.1674-5086.2019.09.16.04

Abstract

Abstract: Sulige Gas Field is a typical tight and lithologic gas reservoir, with the reservoir characters of variation and heterogeneity, which makes it difficult to evaluate the risk of reserves using determine method objectively. Probabilistic method is used in the X Block to evaluate the uncertainty and risk of reserves. Through the probability distribution function of each variable and multiple random simulation calculations, the uncertainty of gas reservoir parameters and reserves corresponding to different risks are quantitatively evaluated. Combined with single-factor sensitivity analysis, the main risk factors of gas reservoirs are identified and the reserves calculated by the geological model are optimized. And the following research results were obtained. First, the probability distribution of geological reserves simulated by probability method provides the geological reserves under different risks, which is helpful for investment decision and development plan formulation. Second, the sensitivity analysis of parameter variables can determine the main parameters affecting the reserves results of each layer, rank the sensitivity of parameters, estimate the impact of variable change interval on the reserves results, shorten the reserves evaluation cycle and improve the evaluation accuracy. Third, the reserves of the geological model were compared with the reference reserves (P₅₀) of the probabilistic method. Combined with the single-factor sensitivity analysis, the model attribute parameters were adjusted, and the error between the reserves of the optimized geological model and the reference reserves of each small layer in the X Block was within 10%. In conclusion, the probability method gives the reserve scale of lithologic gas reservoirs under different risks, which can objectively evaluate the reserve risk and achieve the purpose of optimizing the geological model.

Key words: geological reserves, probabilistic method, lithologic gas reservoir, uncertainty evaluation, sensitivity analysis, Sulige Gas Field

CLC Number:

TE155

YIN Tao, YANG Yiming, JIN Suobao, JIANG Qianfeng, MENG Dewei. Application of Probability Method in the Reserves Risk Evaluation of Lithologic Gas Reservoirs[J]. 西南石油大学学报(自然科学版), 2020, 42(3): 60-68.

0
/ / Recommend

Add to citation manager EndNote|Ris|BibTeX

URL: http://journal15.magtechjournal.com/Jwk_xnzk/EN/10.11885/j.issn.1674-5086.2019.09.16.04

http://journal15.magtechjournal.com/Jwk_xnzk/EN/Y2020/V42/I3/60

References

[1] 杨通佑,范尚炯,陈元千,等. 石油及天然气储量计算方法[M]. 北京:石油工业出版社, 1990:24-27. YANG Tongyou, FAN Shangjiong, CHEN Yuanqian, et al. Reserves estimate methods of oil and gas[M]. Beijing:Petroleum Industry Press, 1990:24-27.
[2] 贾成业,贾爱林,邓怀群,等. 概率法在油气储量计算中的应用[J]. 天然气工业, 2009, 29(11):83-85. doi:10.3787/j.issn.1000-0976.2009.11.026 JIA Chengye, JIA Ailin, DENG Huaiqun, et al. Application of the stochastic method to oil and gas reserves estimation[J]. Natural Gas Industry, 2009, 29(11):83-85. doi:10.3787/j.issn.1000-0976.2009.11.026
[3] 金强,王伟锋,信荃麟. 测井多井储层评价与石油储量计算[J]. 石油实验地质, 1994, 16(2):152-156. JIN Qiang, WANG Weifeng, XIN Quanlin. Reservoir evaluation and petroleum reserve estimation by multiple well-loggings[J]. Experimental Petroleum Geology, 1994, 16(2):152-156.
[4] 李定军. 概率统计法在储量估算中的应用[J]. 断块油气田, 2014, 21(5):615-618. doi:10.6056/dkyqt201405017 LI Dingjun. Application of probability statistic method in reserves estimation[J]. Fault-Block Oil & Gas Field, 2014, 21(5):615-618. doi:10.6056/dkyqt201405017
[5] 刘荣和. 气藏开发早期动态储量计算方法探讨[J]. 特殊油气藏, 2012, 19(5):69-72. doi:10.3969/j.issn.10066535.2012.05.017 LIU Ronghe. Discussion on the dynamic reserve calculation in early development stage of gas reservoir[J]. Special Oil and Gas Reservoirs, 2012, 19(5):69-72. doi:10.3969/j.issn.1006-6535.2012.05.017
[6] 王桐,王光付,陈桂菊,等. 基于三维地质模型的地质储量不确定性分析——以西非尼日尔三角洲盆地P油藏为例[J]. 石油地质与工程, 2017, 31(6):74-77, 81. doi:10.3969/j.issn.1673-8217.2017.06.017 WANG Tong, WANG Guangfu, CHEN Guiju, et al. Uncertainty analysis of geological reserves based on 3D geological model:A case study on P reservoir in Niger Delta Basin in the west Africa[J]. Petroleum Geology and Engineering, 2017, 31(6):74-77, 81. doi:10.3969/j.issn.16738217.2017.06.017
[7] 于倩男,刘义坤,刘学,等. 非均质低渗透储层渗流特征实验研究[J]. 西南石油大学学报(自然科学版), 2018, 40(3):105-114. doi:10.11885/j.issn.1674-5086.2017.05.31.01 YU Qiannan, LIU Yikun, LIU Xue, et al. An experimental study on the porous-flow characteristics of heterogeneous low permeability reservoirs[J]. Journal of Southwest Petroleum University (Science & Technology Edition), 2018, 40(3):105-114. doi:10.11885/j.issn.1674-5086.2017.05.31.01
[8] 马志欣,张吉,薛雯,等. 一种辫状河心滩砂体构型解剖新方法[J]. 天然气工业, 2018, 38(7):16-24. doi:10.3787/j.issn.1000-0976.2018.07.003 MA Zhixin, ZHANG Ji, XUE Wen, et al. A new architecture characterization method for braided river channel bar sandbody[J]. Natural Gas Industry, 2018, 38(7):16-24. doi:10.3787/j.issn.1000-0976.2018.07.003
[9] 付金华,范立勇,刘新社,等. 苏里格气田成藏条件及勘探开发关键技术[J]. 石油学报, 2019, 40(2):240-256. doi:10.7623/syxb201902013 FU Jinhua, FAN Liyong, LIU Xinshe, et, al. Gas accumulation conditions and key exploration & development technologies in Sulige Gas Field[J]. Acta Petrolei Sinica, 2019, 40(2):240-256. doi:10.7623/syxb201902013
[10] 崔明明,李进步,王宗秀,等. 辫状河三角洲前缘致密砂岩储层特征及优质储层控制因素——以苏里格气田西南部石盒子组8段为例[J]. 石油学报, 2019, 40(3):279-294. doi:10.7623/syxb201903003 CUI Mingming, LI Jinbu, WANG Zongxiu, et, al. Characteristics of tight sand reservoir and controlling factors of high-quality reservoir at braided delta front:A case study from Member 8 of Shihezi Formation in southwestern Sulige Gas Field[J]. Acta Petrolei Sinica, 2019, 40(3):279-294. doi:10.7623/syxb201903003
[11] FISHMAN G. Monte Carlo:Concepts, algorithms, and applications[M]. West Bengal:Academic Publishers, 2003.
[12] 詹姆斯R埃文斯,戴维L奥尔森. 模拟与风险分析[M]. 洪锡熙,译. 上海:上海人民出版社, 2001:102-108. JAMES R E, DAVID L O. Simulation and risk analysis[M]. HONG Xixi, translation. Shanghai:Shanghai People's Press, 2001:102-108.
[13] 陈立文. 项目投资风险分析理论与方法[M]. 北京:机械工业出版社, 2004:25-27. CHEN Liwen. Risk analysis theory and method of project investment[M]. Beijing:Mechanical Industry Press, 2004:25-27.
[14] 程强,周怀春,黄志锋. DRESOR法对瞬态辐射传递问题的研究[J]. 工程热物理学报, 2006, 27(3):472-474. doi:10.3321/j.issn:0253-231X.2006.03.035 CHENG Qiang, ZHOU Huaichun, HUANG Zhifeng. The DRESOR method for the solution of transient radiative transfer[J]. Journal of Engineering Thermophysics, 2006, 27(3):472-474. doi:10.3321/j.issn:0253-231X.2006.03.035
[15] 甄仌,易红亮,谈和平,等. 散射性半透明介质内红外热辐射与相变耦合换热[J]. 红外与毫米波学报, 2011, 30(1):42-47. ZHEN Bing, YI Hongliang, TAN Heping, et al. Coupled infrared radiation and phase-change heat transfer in semitransparent medium[J]. Journal of Infrared and Millimeter Waves, 2011, 30(1):42-47.
[16] 王景辰,李孝全,杨洋,等. 基于交叉熵的蒙特卡洛法在发电系统充裕度评估中的应用[J]. 电力系统保护与控制, 2013, 41(20):75-79. WANG Jingchen, LI Xiaoquan, YANG Yang, et al. Application of Monte Carlo simulation based on cross-entropy methods in generating system adequacy evaluation[J]. Power System Protection and Control, 2013, 41(20):75-79.
[17] 石石,冉莉娜. 基于概率法的油气储量不确定性分析[J]. 天然气勘探与开发, 2011, 34(1):18-21. doi:10.3969/j.issn.1673-3177.2011.01.005 SHI Shi, RAN Li'na. Probability-method-based reserves uncertainty analysis[J]. Natural Gas Exploration and Development, 2011, 34(1):18-21. doi:10.3969/j.issn.16733177.2011.01.005
[18] 陈劲松,韩洪宝,年静波,等. 概率法在页岩气未开发最终可采量评估中的应用——以北美某成熟页岩气区块为例[J]. 天然气工业, 2018, 38(7):52-58. doi:10.3787/j.issn.1000-0976.2018.07.007 CHEN Jinsong, HAN Hongbao, NIAN Jingbo, et al. Application of probability method in the evaluation of unexploited shale gas final yield:A case study of a mature shale gas block in North America[J]. Natural Gas Industry, 2018, 38(7):52-58. doi:10.3787/j.issn.1000-0976.2018.07.007
[19] 初广震,邵龙义,徐艳梅. 概率法在多断块气藏储量风险评估中的应用——以塔里木盆地大贝气田为例[J]. 非常规油气, 2014, 1(2):13-19. CHU Guangzhen, SHAO Longyi, XU Yanmei. Application of probability method in the reserves risk evaluation of multi-fault block gasfield:An example from Dabei Gasfield in Tarim Basin[J]. Unconventional Oil & Gas, 2014, 1(2):13-19.
[20] 谢寅符,陈和平,马中振,等. 概率法油气储量评估及其与确定法的差异比较[J]. 石油实验地质, 2014, 36(1):117-122. doi:10.11781/sysydz201401117 XIE Yinfu, CHEN Heping, MA Zhongzhen, et al. Probability estimation of reserves and difference between probabilistic and determine methods[J]. Petroleum Geology & Experiment, 2014, 36(1):117-122. doi:10.11781/sysydz201401117
[21] CAPEN E C. Probabilistic reserves! Here at last?[C]. SPE 73828-PA, 2001. doi:10.2118/73828-PA
[22] 于金彪,杨耀忠,戴涛,等. 油藏地质建模与数值模拟一体化应用技术[J]. 油气地质与采收率, 2009, 16(5):72-75. doi:10.3969/j.issn.1009-9603.2009.05.021 YU Jinbiao, YANG Yaozhong, DAI Tao, et al. Research of integrated application technology on reservoir geological modeling and numerical simulation[J]. Petroleum Geology and Recovery Efficiency, 2009, 16(5):72-75. doi:10.3969/j.issn.1009-9603.2009.05.021
[23] 贾爱林. 精细油藏描述与地质建模技术[M]. 北京:石油工业出版社, 2010:251-255. JIA Ailin. Fine reservoir description and geological modeling technology[M]. Beijing:Petroleum Industry Press, 2010:251-255.
[24] 付宁海,唐海发,刘群明. 低渗-致密砂岩气藏开发中后期精细调整技术[J]. 西南石油大学学报(自然科学版), 2018, 40(3):136-145. doi:10.11885/j.issn.16745086.2017.09.15.01 FU Ninghai, TANG Haifa, LIU Qunming. Technologies for fine adjustment in the middle-later development stage of low permeability tight sandstone gas reservoirs[J]. Journal of Southwest Petroleum University (Science & Technology Edition), 2018, 40(3):136-145. doi:10.11885/j.issn.1674-5086.2017.09.15.01
[25] 江艳平,芦凤明,李涛,等. 复杂断块油藏地质建模难点及对策[J]. 断块油气田, 2013, 20(5):585-588. doi:10.6056/dkyqt201305010JIANG Yanping, LU Fengming, LI Tao, et al. Geological modeling difficulties and countermeasures of complex fault block reservoir[J]. Fault-Block Oil & Gas Field, 2013, 20(5):585-588. doi:10.6056/dkyqt201305010
[26] 杨正明,马壮志,肖前华,等. 致密油藏岩芯全尺度孔喉测试方法及应用[J]. 西南石油大学学报(自然科学版),2018,40(3):97-104. doi:10.11885/j.issn.16745086.2017.04.09.01 YANG Zhengming, MA Zhuangzhi, XIAO Qianhua, et al. Method for all-scale pore-throat measurements in tight reservoir cores in it's application[J]. Journal of Southwest Petroleum University (Science & Technology Edition), 2018, 40(3):97-104. doi:10.11885/j.issn.1674-5086.2017.04.09.01
[27] 贾爱林,程立华. 数字化精细油藏描述程序方法[J]. 石油勘探与开发, 2010, 37(6):709-715. JIA Ailin, CHENG Lihua. The technique of digital detailed reservoir characterization[J]. Petroleum Exploration and Development, 2010, 37(6):709-715.