关键词: 石油价值链, 暴力冲突, 资源诅咒, 食利国, 可持续性, 风险管理

Abstract: In the process of realizing petroleum value chain,two kinds of factors have fundamental influence. One is exogenous factors, such as the quality and quantity of petroleum resources and their geographical location, the geological characteristics of oil fields, the change of global petroleum prices, global demand and technological progress; the other is endogenous factors, such as domestic policies such as distribution of exploration and production rights, and the ability of risk management for petroleum resource development. The negative environmental and social impacts of petroleum development, the presence of the resource curse and rentier states, as well as national environmental vulnerability, suggest that the emergence of petroleum value chains may induce conflict risks. The globalization of petroleum value chain, the improvement of strategic environment and social evaluation methods, and the examples of success of national economic development driven by petroleum resource development have provided developing countries with useful petroleum conflict risk management strategies. Taking full advantage of the role of petroleum value chain in driving economic growth,ensuring oil safety and improving sustainability,together with improving petroleum policy, can promote the sustained and stable national development.

Key words: petroleum value chain, violent conflict, resource curse, rentier states, sustainability, risk management