西南石油大学学报(社会科学版) ›› 2010, Vol. 4 ›› Issue (5): 7-12.DOI: 10.3863/j.issn.1674-5094.2010.05.002
• 石油与天然气软科学 • Next Articles
WANG Lin
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Abstract: In this article,we do an empirical study of the relationship between oil production and oil consumption and economic growth by using vector auto regression model(VARM) on the data bases from 1978 to 2008.We also do some analysis based on the result of Granger test of causality.Both studies lead to the conclusion that there has a long-term equilibrium among the three variables.On a long term basis,the growth of real GDP is directly proportional to the growth of oil consumption and oil production.Furthermore,oil consumption has more effect on GDP than oil production.We also found that the economic growth is the Granger cause of oil consumption and production,and the oil consumption is not the Granger cause of oil production because of the limitations of production capacity.In the future China′s oil consumption will depend more on oil import.
Key words: oil production, oil consumption, economic growth, VAR model
CLC Number:
D621.6
WANG Lin. THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN OIL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN CHINA[J]. 西南石油大学学报(社会科学版), 2010, 4(5): 7-12.
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http://journal15.magtechjournal.com/Jwk_xnsk/EN/Y2010/V4/I5/7