关键词: 储气库, 出砂机理, 出砂预测模型, 层次分析法, 模糊综合评判决策

Abstract: Affected by the operation mode of gas storage with strong injection and production, the risk of sand production is prone to occur in the reservoir during peak shaving and gas production. Once sand is produced, it will seriously affect the life and peak shaving capacity of the gas storage. The commonly used qualitative empirical sand prediction methods lack intuitive and comprehensive results, and a single prediction index has great limitations. In response to this problem, qualitative experience sand prediction methods such as porosity method, acoustic time difference method, combined modulus method, sand production index method and Schlumberger ratio method are considered comprehensively, and analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation decision-making are adopted to establish qualitative experience. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model for sand production prediction can predict and analyze the sand production results of different perforation sections. Application examples show that this method has realized the prediction of formation sand production results in different perforation sections, improved the accuracy and comprehensiveness of formation sand production prediction, which is of great significance to the long-term safe operation of gas storage.

Key words: gas storage, sand production mechanism, sand production prediction model, analytic hierarchy process, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and decision-making