Abstract:

.2,173-177,2010（ISSN 1674-5086，in Chinese）
Abstract：At present，the mainly applyed method of pipeline risk assessment is according to the advice of experts to score the risk factors of long distance pipeline，also this method is used to identify and assess theuncertainties factors and random incidents.Because of the differences of evaluator′s subjective judgment，different results are often produced.So，all the results are low in credibility.According to field statistics，a number of safety incidents are caused by the uncertain random factors and the failure of structural component.On this account，when the structure failure of crossing over pipeline is analyzed，the stochastic method is applied.The random variables include the factors of process，environment，temperature，wind load，random load etc.，in accordance with the random process，after these factors are normal treated and sampled，according to reliability theory，the impact of the different random events on the structure failure probability is determined.The simulation results of the analysis show that the method can effectively improve the accuracy of risk assessment results.

Key words: pipeline, safety, risk assessment, stochastic method, failure analysis, long distance pipeline