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On the Energy Revolution and the Mission of Science and Technology
- ZOU Caineng, PAN Songqi, DANG Liushuan
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2019, 41(3):
1-12.
DOI: 10.11885/j.issn.1674-5086.2019.04.07.01
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Energy is a country's driving force towards power and the cornerstone of national security. The world's energy development is currently entering the third stage of the transition from coal, oil, and gas to new energy sources. This stage is characterized by a new combination of energy supply worldwide:33% from petroleum, 24% from natural gas, 28% from coal, and 15% from new energy sources. However, China still has a coal-based energy, as its "coal-rich and oil-and-gas-lacking" energy endowment has led to an energy supply structure of "one leader with three followers":59% from coal, 19% from petroleum, 8% from natural gas, and 14% from new energy sources. It is therefore necessary to initiate a revolutionary process of transformation of the energy structure, in order to achieve a condition in which the energy supply is provided by a more balanced combination of coal (40%), oil and gas (31%), and new energy sources (29%). China's petroleum industry is undergoing a transformation from conventional to unconventional oil and gas resources; thus, it currently can be defined as a "mixed conventional-unconventional" oil and gas industry. At the same time, the industry is undergoing a "theoretical revolution" from the exploitation of single-entrapment oil and gas reservoirs to that of "sweet spot areas" on a large scale, a technological revolution from the use vertical natural wells to that of fractured horizontal well networks of "man-made reservoirs", a management revolution from manual operations to intelligent and low-cost development, and a strategic revolution from energy politics to reshaping the energy balance. China has chosen the strategies of "reducing coal, stabilizing petroleum, and increasing gas" and "vigorously developing new energy sources" as the two paths towards energy transformation. At the same time, China is facing "three major challenges":the need to achieve a clean coal utilization, the rising dependence on imported oil and gas, and the uncertainty about the future pillar industries of the new energy. In order to overcome these challenges, China needs to establish the "three major strategic areas" of coal, oil and gas, and new energy sources, by carrying out "four major revolutions" concerning the energy supply, consumption, technical aspects, and overall system; exploiting the "five major opportunities" presented by the current national policy (the "One Belt One Road" strategy); pursuing a new round of oil price recovery and a large-scale development of natural gas; and working in the direction of a technological revolution in the new energy resources so as to complete the historical mission of China's energy transformation. The development of social civilization and the progress of science and technology are two driving forces for energy transformation, with the former being the internal driving force and the latter the fundamental driving force. The transition from traditional fossil energy to non-fossil new energy sources is the inevitable trend and the inevitable choice of energy development.