西南石油大学学报(社会科学版) ›› 2018, Vol. 20 ›› Issue (4): 23-28.DOI: 10.11885/j.issn.1674-5094.2018.05.08.01

• 经济与管理 • 上一篇    下一篇

浅析安徽农村金融发展与经济增长间的关系——基于VAR模型

耿刘利, 黎娜, 陈孟   

  1. 滁州学院经济与管理学院, 安徽 滁州 239000
  • 收稿日期:2018-05-08 出版日期:2018-07-01 发布日期:2018-07-01
  • 作者简介:耿刘利(1989-),男(汉族),安徽怀远人,助教,硕士,研究方向:财务会计学、农村金融。
  • 基金资助:
    安徽省社会科学创新发展研究课题重大研究项目“农业现代化强省研究——以安徽省农业现代化金融支持为例”(2016ZD008);安徽省高等学校人文社会科学研究项目“农业供给侧改革视角下安徽农村金融机构服务模式创新、风险评估与控制研究”(SK2017ZD30)。

A Study on the Relationship Between Rural Finance Development and Economic Growth in Anhui——Based on VAR Model

GENG Liuli, LI Na, CHEN Meng   

  1. School of Economics and Management, Chuzhou University, Chuzhou Anhui, 239000, China
  • Received:2018-05-08 Online:2018-07-01 Published:2018-07-01

摘要: 基于安徽省农村经济供给侧改革背景,选取2001-2016年安徽省农村金融和农村经济相关数据,运用ADF检验、协整检验和格兰杰因果关系检验等方法,分析安徽省农村金融发展与农村经济增长之间的关系,结果表明:安徽省农村金融规模的扩大和金融效率的提升能够促进农村经济的增长,农村经济的增长也能够促进农村金融的发展。为了进一步促进农村金融发展和农村经济协调增长,推动农村金融供给改革,当前需要通过创新农村金融产品和服务、确保农村金融有效供给,优化农村金融结构、提高农村金融发展效率,加强政策引导、强化财政支农力度等措施,不断深化安徽省农村经济供给侧改革进程。

关键词: 安徽省, 农村金融, 农村经济, 格兰杰因果, 协整检验, VAR模型

Abstract: In the context of the supply side reform of the rural economy in Anhui Province, we selected data of rural finance and rural economy from 2001 to 2016 in Anhui Province and analyzed rural financial development and rural economic growth with ADF testing, co-integration testing, and Granger causality testing. The results show that the expansion of rural financial scale and financial efficiency in Anhui Province can promote rural economic growth, and the growth of rural economy can in turn promote the development of rural finance. In order to further promote rural financial development and coordinated growth of rural economy, and to advance rural financial supply reforms, it is now necessary to enhance policy guidance, to innovate rural financial products and services,ensuring effective supply of rural finance,to optimizing rural financial structures,in order to improve the efficiency of rural financial development and to enhance fiscal support for agriculture. We believe the above mentioned measures will deepen the supply side reform of rural economy supply reform in Anhui Province.

Key words: Anhui Province, rural finance, rural economy, Grainger causality, Co-integration test, VAR model

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