西南石油大学学报(社会科学版) ›› 2017, Vol. 19 ›› Issue (1): 1-8.DOI: 10.11885/j.issn.1674-5094.2016.11.17.08

• 能源发展研究 •    下一篇

国际油价波动对我国页岩气上市公司股价的影响

高辉, 王洪芳, 彭秋林   

  1. 成都理工大学商学院, 四川 成都 610059
  • 收稿日期:2016-11-17 出版日期:2017-01-01 发布日期:2017-01-01
  • 通讯作者: 王洪芳(1993-),女(汉族),四川广元人,硕士研究生,研究方向:能源金融。
  • 作者简介:高辉(1969-),男(汉族),云南宣威人,教授,博士,研究方向:能源经济。
  • 基金资助:
    四川石油天然气发展研究中心项目“国际油价波动对四川页岩气发展的影响分析及对策研究”(川油气科SKB15-02),“页岩气产业化发展的融资瓶颈及其对策研究”(川油气科SKB16-11)。

The Impact of the Fluctuations of International Oil Prices on Shale Gas Company's Stock Price in China

Gao Hui, Wang Hongfang, Pen Qiuling   

  1. College of Commerce, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu Sichuan, 610059, China
  • Received:2016-11-17 Online:2017-01-01 Published:2017-01-01

摘要: 随着我国石油对外依存度的不断提升,国际油价波动也对我国页岩气上市公司的股价产生影响。通过选取19家页岩气上市公司2009年12月至2016年2月间的75组月度数据,运用结构向量自回归模型研究国际油价冲击、通货膨胀率、货币供应量对我国页岩气上市公司股价的影响,并通过脉冲响应函数和方差分解法进一步分析国际油价冲击、货币供应量、通货膨胀率对页岩气指数的影响。研究发现:国际油价上涨对页岩气公司股价存在正向冲击,但有时滞并逐渐减弱;通货膨胀率、货币供应量对页岩气公司股价波动影响较小,而油价上涨会加剧通货膨胀;国际油价冲击主要受货币供应量和通货膨胀的影响。同时,上述影响均存在不同程度的滞后期。

关键词: 页岩气, 股票价格, 油价冲击, SVAR模型, 脉冲响应

Abstract: With China's growing dependence on the international oil market,the international oil price fluctuations are producing an increasingly important influence on the listed shale gas company's share price. By analyzing 75 sets monthly data of 19 listed shale gas companies from December 2009 to February 2009, and by using the structure of vector autoregressive (SVAR) model, we studied the impacts of the international oil price shocks, the rate of inflation, and changes in the money supply on the stock prices of China's listed shale gas companies. The results showed that the international oil price rise has a positive impact on shale gas company stock prices, and the impact is of a time lag, and gradually decreased; the rate of inflation and money supply have little impact on stock price;the rise in oil prices can fuel inflation. All the above mentioned influences have different degrees of time lag.

Key words: shale gas, stock price, impact of oil price, SVAR model, impulse response

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