Journal of Southwest Petroleum University(Social Sciences Edition)

IMPROVED GM（1,1）MODEL AND APPLICATION IN NATURAL GAS DEMAND FORECASTING OF SICHUAN PROVINCE

MAO Wen-jin ZHENG Shou-chun

2010, 4(6): 19-21. DOI: 10.3863/j.issn.1674-5094.2010.06.003

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For the purpose of improving prediction precision and promoting general applicability of GM(1,1) model in natural gas demand forecasting，the deficiencies of conventional GM(1,1) model is analyzed and an improved method is discussed in this paper.An improved GM(1，1) model is constructed by optimizing and revising model coefficient to the lower level.Based on natural gas consumption data in Sichuan in the years from 2000 to 2007，prediction models of conventional GM(1，1)，unbiased GM(1，1) and the improved GM(1，1) are compared and analyzed in this paper.The prediction results show that the improved GM(1,1) model has higher prediction accuracy.

CREATING PETROLEUM ACADEMIC WORD LIST

JIANG Shu-juan

2010, 4(6): 27-30. DOI: 10.3863/j.issn.1674-5094.2010.06.005

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Academic English words play an important role in English teaching for special purposes，but the existing Academic Word List(AWL) covers mainly words of liberal arts and social sciences and does not contribute much to petroleum English teaching.The author then create a Petroleum Academic Word List(PAWL) of 498 words selected by a standard strictly consistent with Averil Coxhead′s AWL standard.With 72 words less than those of AWL，PAWL covers 3.2% more petroleum words，and the level of difference between these lists is 91%.PAWL can provide a foundation for the compilation of petroleum English text books thus making petroleum English teaching more pertinent.
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CHANGES IN OBAMA GOVERNMENT′S INDIA POLICY REFLECTED BY MANMOHAN SINGH′S VISIT TO THE U.S.

MA Yun-fei

2010, 4(6): 35-39. DOI: 10.3863/j.issn.1674-5094.2010.06.007

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India and the United States have been becoming increasingly important strategically after the Cold War.In the 21th century，both countries cooperate in a wide range of areas from counterterrorism to civil application of nuclear technology to business and trade.After Obama took office，American India policy drew worldwide concerns.Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh′s recent Visit to the U.S.aims to reinforce bilateral relationship and to avoid being marginalized in the U.S.global strategies.

RESEARCH ON PRESUMPTION

JIN Ling-fei

2010, 4(6): 45-49. DOI: 10.3863/j.issn.1674-5094.2010.06.009

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The natural limitations of inductive reasoning means that presumption is of probability and subjectivity.Therefore，rules and regulations are set to guarantee the authenticity of presumptions.As an alternative to the evidentiary adjudication，it plays an irreplaceable and important role in proving any cases that cannot be proved conclusively or disputably based on evidence.However，the insufficiency or subjectivity of the rule of thumb or logic results in the inherent limitation of presumption-probability of truth.Therefore，presumption can only be used as a supplementary means of case investigation.For the same reason，it is necessary to sketch a series of regulations to reduce its negative effects to the maximum degree.

GEOLOGICAL DISASTERS PREVENTION AND GOVERNANCE SEEN FROM PRACTICE IN SICHUAN

LI Hou-qiang ZHANG Xu CHEN Xiao-jun

2010, 4(6): 54-57. DOI: 10.3863/j.issn.1674-5094.2010.06.011

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Taking the disaster governance practice as the subject of study，this paper makes a timely and comprehensive reflection on the disaster governance practice in Sichuan，and draws lessons from “Sichuan Practice” in the process of which people′s life and welfare were given top priority.The prerequisite for successful disaster governance is early warning and prediction on which correct decision making is based.Besides，effective cooperation and scientifically allocated responsibility also guarantee the success of disaster governance.The authors believe that Sichuan′s success makes a good example of disaster governance for the entire nation.

THE NEW INSTITUTIONAL ECONOMICS IN THE COMMERCIALIZATION OF ACADEMIC JOURNALS

YU Kai-hong

2010, 4(6): 74-78. DOI: 10.3863/j.issn.1674-5094.2010.06.015

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Although commercialized operation has provided increasing income for the academic journal working staff，the increase does not last long.The author takes a new institutional perspective in his study about an effective and sustainable operation model of academic journals and suggests，based on a cost-profit analysis of commercialized operation of academic journals，that the institutional system be established and improved that will ensure that the editorial institutions will profit in the fair market competition.In this way，the editorial institutions will develop in a healthy way.
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DEVELOPMENT AND INNOVATION OF LOW-CARBON ECONOMY IN SMALL AND MEDIUM ENTERPRISES

LIANG Lin YANG Kun ZHANG Din

2010, 4(6): 79-82. DOI: 10.3863/j.issn.1674-5094.2010.06.016

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Today，low-carbon economy has become the main trend of global economy，which also provides enormous challenges and opportunities for small and medium enterprises(SMEs).Studying low-carbon economy from new energy level，reducing carbon emissions per unit of production，and low-carbon consumption，we can conclude that it is imperative for SMEs to develop low-carbon economy.There also exist advantages and disadvantages.Conducting enterprise innovation and changing the past extensive mode of development are important approaches for SMEs to develop low-carbon economy.

AFTER CRISIS:BLOCKING IN PUBLICIZING CRISIS INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION FAILURE

JIAN Gui-deng

2010, 4(6): 83-87. DOI: 10.3863/j.issn.1674-5094.2010.06.017

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China′s crisis management lacks a clear conveying of information and therefore is not an efficient crisis handling mechanism.Crises are not taken as dynamic continua and are treated as separated fragments，which will often generate vacuum areas in communication.Stimulated by public opinion on the Internet crises may evolve into more serious ones.Therefore，in handling crises，topic management may contribute to leading public opinion to a more friendly side and thus minimizes the damage of crisis and avoid further crises.

ANCIENT GREEK PHILOSOPHY AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF HUMAN CONSCIOUSNESS

WANG Hong-chen

2010, 4(6): 105-108. DOI: 10.3863/j.issn.1674-5094.2010.06.021

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Before western philosophy came into existence，ancient Greek philosophy had derived from religions in its time.Philosophy came into human mind when ancient Greeks found the solution to the riddle of Sphinx.And its appearance requires abstract and independent consciousness of men.This paper tries to analyze the development of human consciousness through ancient Greek religions from primitive tribal religions to Olympus religion and to Dionysus-Orpheus religion.The study reveals that human self-awareness turned from the vagueness in the beginning to clearness and nature and man himself came to be subjects of human thinking.In such process，ancient Greek religions enlightened man′s self-awareness that human consciousness grew mature and laid foundation for philosophic thinking.

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